The latest report from the SDSN Global Climate Hub, titled “Climate Neutrality Pathways for Greece: Integrated Assessment and Decision Support Tool (2025),” presents an integrated modelling approach to assess Greek National Commitments for Climate Neutrality, within a holistic framework that includes food-land, water, and cross-sectoral energy systems. This is achieved by combing different models (FABLE Calculator, BiofuelGCH tool, LEAP, Maritime GCH model, WaterReqGCH tool, LandReqCalcGCH tool) under a scenario of joint implementation of the most important sectoral policies driving the transition to climate-neutrality. In particular, different energy, agricultural, shipping, and water policy frameworks are simulated jointly in such a National-Commitment scenario, to provide useful insights on whether these plans can achieve the climate-neutrality goals and identify weaknesses that need to be addressed in order to capitalise on the opportunities for a broader sustainability transition.
Two scenarios were considered: (a) the ‘current accounts’ or business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, which assumes that the current trends will continue applying until 2050; (b) the National Commitments for Climate Neutrality (NCNC), which assumes that the different climate-neutrality relevant policies per sector, are implemented together. The presented modelling approach is tested in Greece, but it is replicable for any other country. We find that although specific sectoral plans have the potential to achieve multiple co-benefits, the absence of a unified framework can lead to inefficiencies and missed opportunities for synergies and unintended conflicts among objectives.
Moreover, we present a novel Decision Support System (DSS), that allows policymakers to refine their NCNC, and prioritize investments for measures for implementation in order to achieve decarbonization in a more efficient way. The DSS is based on MultiCriteria Analysis, uniquely combining Fuzzy AHP and Fuzzy TOPSIS techniques. The results of the DSS application consist a refined set of measures, the SDSN scenario, which can lead to decarbonization faster, at lower emissions over the planning horizon, at lower costs and efforts, compared to the NCNC.