A new open-access article is now available: “Assessing national climate-neutrality plans through a modelling nexus lens: the case of Greece.” Publishing this work within the Nature Portfolio marks an important recognition of its scientific contribution and policy relevance.
In this era of persistent and interconnected crises across natural, economic, and social systems, we must develop science-based, systems-oriented solution pathways that can dynamically guide countries toward meeting their national commitments on climate action, energy security, biodiversity protection, food security, and socio-economic development. The mission of AE4RIA – Alliance of Excellence for Research and Innovation on Αephoria and the United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network SDSN Global Climate Hub is to co-design with national stakeholders these systems-oriented solution pathways for every country.
The article presents—for the first time—a fully integrated energy–land–water modelling nexus to assess Greece’s transition to climate neutrality. This interdisciplinary approach captures the real-world complexity of national climate strategies, where decisions in one sector create ripple effects across others.
Using a linked suite of models—including the FABLE Calculator, LEAP, WaterReqGCH, LandReqCalcGCH, and BiofuelGCH—the analysis examines how Greece’s key energy, agricultural, and water policies interact and what these interactions imply for achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.
Key findings include:
• Energy-related emissions could decline almost fivefold by 2050 under optimistic, fully coordinated policy implementation.
• Total energy demand could decrease by approximately 20%, driven by efficiency improvements and structural changes.
• Domestic biofuel production potential can significantly support further decarbonisation.
• Current strategies often underestimate important interdependencies, including land requirements for renewable energy deployment and trade-offs across land–water–energy policies.
• Governance, planning, and infrastructure limitations remain major obstacles, highlighting the need for unified, ambitious, systems-based implementation.
The article is authored by Phoebe Koundouri, Angelos Alamanos, Ioannis Arampatzidis, Stathis Devves, Konstantinos Dellis, and Chris Deranian.
Reference:
Koundouri, P., Alamanos, A., Arampatzidis, I. et al. (2025). Assessing national climate-neutrality plans through a modelling nexus lens: the case of Greece. npj Climate Action, 4, 113. https://www.nature.com/articles/s44168-025-00318-2